Scenarios Show Potential Ways Climate Change Affects Creditworthiness

Climate change is a megatrend that can have material impacts on the creditworthiness of issuers and debt instruments.

In our latest white paper, S&P Global Ratings presents plausible long-term scenarios to help illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on credit transmission channels—and ultimately on creditworthiness.

We define three scenarios for climate transition risks, and four for physical climate risks, in line with our five-step process to assess the credit materiality of megatrends. We incorporate takeaways from climate scenario analyses we have conducted, with the aim of providing possible common ground for similar analyses in the future.

Sustainability Insights

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Climate Transition Risk

How S&P Global Ratings Supports Credibility And Transparency In Transition Financing
Sustainable Finance FAQ
02 Jul 2024

How S&P Global Ratings Supports Credibility And Transparency In Transition Financing

Sustainable finance is not only about financing activities and investments that are already compatible with a low-carbon, climate resilient future, considered "green," and aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Climate Finance In Lower Income Countries

Low- and lower-middle-income countries are most vulnerable and least ready to adapt to climate change—yet receive the least amount of investment to transition their economies and build resilience to physical climate risks.

Physical Climate Risk

ripple-effect-landing-page-graphic

How Value Chains Compound Sector Exposures To Physical Climate Risks

Companies may be underestimating their exposures to physical climate risks if they fail to consider value-chain exposures in their risk analyses. In turn, they may also be underestimating potential operational and financial impacts.

All sectors inherit at least some physical climate risk exposures from their value chains, including those with relatively limited direct risk exposure - but most exposed are those that rely on climate sensitive upstream sectors.

Sustainability Focus Webinar Series

S&P Global Ratings’ analysts held a webinar to present our research on climate transition—exploring how the climate policy paradigm is shifting towards a model in which economic growth and decarbonization can coexist, and how one of the key hard-to-abate sectors is positioned to manage potential credit risks stemming from its decarbonization challenges.

Other Environmental Factors

As The European Apparel Sector's Environmental Footprint Widens, Credit Risks Are Low, For Now
Sustainability Insights Research

As The European Apparel Sector's Environmental Footprint Widens, Credit Risks Are Low, For Now

Although the volume of clothes produced and sold globally is increasing alongside its environmental impact, the apparel sector's carbon emissions, waste, and pollution risks remain largely unpriced.

At the same time, the financial impact of environmental risks on the sector and our ratings has so far been negligible, reflecting a lack of stringent environmental regulations and little change in consumers' buying behavior.

Social & Governance

How Food Safety Can Become A Material Credit Risk
Sustainability Insights Research

How Food Safety Can Become A Material Credit Risk

The primary credit transmission channels for food safety issues are operational disruption and adaptation, regulation and litigation, and consumer awareness.

Food safety vulnerabilities can occur at all stages of the value chain.

When food safety incidents arise, the negative credit impacts will depend on issuer circumstances and responses, as well as the nature of incidents.

Sustainable Finance

global-sus-bond-issuance-2025

Global Sustainable Bond Issuance To Hold Steady At $1 Trillion In 2025

Green bonds will continue to dominate issuance, with transition and sustainability-linked bonds potentially helping to push total sustainable bond issuance to $1 trillion this year.

More than $900 billion of rated outstanding sustainable bonds mature in the next two years and nearly $2.5 trillion before the end of the decade, testing market participants' commitment to climate action and the strength of the sustainable bond market.

Economic Research

Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.

Materiality

Scenarios Show Potential Ways Climate Change Affects Creditworthiness
White Paper

Scenarios Show Potential Ways Climate Change Affects Creditworthiness

Climate change is a megatrend that can have material impacts on the creditworthiness of issuers and debt instruments.

In our latest white paper, S&P Global Ratings presents plausible long-term scenarios to help illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on credit transmission channels—and ultimately on creditworthiness.

Latest Research

Take a look at all of our latest sustainable insights research.