S&P Global Ratings
Economic Research
Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.
Global Economic Outlook Q1 2025: Buckle Up
Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown.
Our preliminary policy read on the new U.S. administration is that positive growth effects will be minimal, inflation pressures will rise, and the Fed is likely to stop cutting rates earlier. This will lead to tighter financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and a more complicated macroeconomic picture elsewhere.
Owing to a "wait and see" approach, our GDP growth forecasts have not moved much since the previous publication, other than incorporating changes related to base effects.
Risks include the full implementation of the proposed U.S. agenda on taxes, trade, and immigration; the end of resilient consumer spending and labor demand; and bond market stress. AI is an upside.
